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So this is the original hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($9)
MP1 ($48.25)
MP2 ($25.55)
CO ($62.45)
Button ($20)
SB ($30.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 8
5 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero bets $2, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) 2, 4, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.60, SB calls $2.60

Turn: ($9.20) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($9.20) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $16, Hero calls $8

Total pot: $41.20 | Rake: $2

Preflop is very standard. Villain is 48/0 over 56 hands, super passive with no ATS, no CB %, a high fold2CB%. He open completes the SB, and I raise planning on taking it down now, and/or CBing the flop and taking it down. This is almost an automatic play whenever someone open completes into you.

On the flop I make a small 60%PSB CB. I am just trying to pick up the pot without risking much, and am planning to fold to a CR. He calls pretty quickly

I do pick up a gutshot on the turn, but opt to knock behind and draw for free. I doubt he will fold to a double too often in BvB, so a check seemed right.

On the river, however, I improve to the 2nd nuts. He checks, I bet big here thinking he probably has a lot of 2pr-ish type hands given the board texture, and am not folding if CR’d. He does end up CR-ing me, albeit a minCR, and I call. This is the mistake in the hand imo. After his minR, he has about $11 back, a little more than a min3b. I should really be shoving here and forcing that last bit of money into the pot. Let’s look at some of the hands he might have here:

= He like never has 98. He is passive, so he def folds 9hi to my CB
= He can certainly have a 3, especially if it was paired on the flop or coupled with a draw
= He can certainly have 2pr, a very likely hand given the texture of the board
= He could have a chopped 8
= He could have a bluff

Given that hand range analysis, a shove on the river is best. The bluffs will never call you, but every other part of the range will crying call, and we either beat it or tie it. I lost about $9 here in value (equity based on his range allocation) by not shoving…and hopefully you don’t miss this spot in the future =)

*SS*