Here is the hand:
Hero (UTG): $114.05
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $3, UTG+1 calls $3, MP1 calls $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold
Flop: ($16.00) K K K (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $11, UTG+1 calls $11, MP1 folds, CO folds, SB folds
Turn: ($38.00) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $26
Preflop is super standard. I generally use 3x as my raise size from all spots as an open raise. My image at this point is probably about 20/16. The main villain in this hand, UTG+1, is a very tight 9/7 over 900 hands. Very hit or miss, never makes a big pot without a big hand.
The flop is a a standard CB spot. According to Zeebo theorem, we can expect that nobody is going to fold a fullhouse here. So I bet a little more than 1/2 pot, and only get called by the very tight guy. At this point, he has one of two hands. He has a worse boat that is drawing dead. Or he has a K, and we are drawing dead. This is the most extreme example ever of WAWB. However, if we look at the kinds of hands that UTG+1 would call pf that have a K in it…it is super rare. Maaaaaaaaaaaaybe he would have AK…but combinatorally speaking, that is damn hard to have. So he is going to have a worse, drawing dead, boat a lot of the time.
On the turn I bet for $26 trying to eek out some more value, and set up for a nice big river bet (if he calls this, there is about $90 in the pot, setting us up for a nice shove on the river). However, this is the mistake of the hand imo. A 9/7 is never going to get involved in a pot this large with a bad boat. He seriously might not get involved in a pot that large with QQ, yet alone TT or 88. Because of this, it is pretty much a bad turn bet. He never really gives me action with worse, and thus I am betting for no reason. The turn is a good spot to check, maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe induce a bluff or so, but really set it up so we get a big bet on the river ($31 or so). The turn bet was a pretty large mistake here, costing me about $27 in ee.