Hero (BTN): $56.90 (113.8 bb)
SB: $97.85 (195.7 bb)
BB: $56.15 (112.3 bb)
UTG+1: $44.50 (89 bb)
MP1: $58.20 (116.4 bb)
MP2: $52.75 (105.5 bb)
MP3: $61.40 (122.8 bb)
CO: $38.15 (76.3 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with T 6
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB calls $1, BB folds
Flop: ($3) Q 7 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.30, SB calls $1.30
Turn: ($5.60) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($5.60) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero raises to $26.35
So this is the hand from last week. Villain is a very bad player, running 27/10 over 120hands. He folds to CB about 2/3, hardly 3bs, and just seems to be your standard fit-or-fold calling station. I make a small 2.5x raise on the button, a nice size to use as a steal (the BB is a nit 11/8, 2%3b over 1.3K hands). Only the SB calls, and we see a flop of Qs7s2c. He checks and I make a small 1/2PSB CB. No reason to risk much more in this spot as he is fit or fold, and this size means he only needs to folds ~1/3 for my play to breakeven. I expect him to fold about 55%-60% here given texture, so I make a decent profit in the LR here.
He quickly calls the CB, and the turn a blank 8. He checks again and I decide to knock back. Although I did pick up outs with a hand that has little, if any, SD value…this is not the kind of person to pressure here. He will never fold a pair, and his flop call leads me to believe he has one. DONT BLUFF THE MAN THAT CALLS!
Now the hand gets funky when I bink the straight on the river and he donks for ~80% pot. Here I have some decisions on what to do:
1.) call because I think he only has JT. this is silly…so I’m not flatting (or folding, ldo)
2.) shove! This is the kind of spot where he should really have a huge hand, something like TP+, with a heavy emphasis on 2pr (97, 87, Q9, etc). We can weight his range toward heavy hands because he donked, and donked fairly large on the river. Remember the player classification…we said he was a “fit-or-fold calling station”. That kind of player type doesn’t bet or raise unless they have a huge hand…if had something like 76 he would just c/c the river. A shove really pressures him and forces him to call off a lot of his stack. The only issue is, he might find a fold with something like QJ or so…a decent % of his range that I REALLY need to max value from.
3.) minraise. This probably sounds silly, but if I thought he would overshove his 2pr+ against a minR, then it is a good play (he might just flat a big raise with 97, but against a minR he might shove it). I am not sure enough of his actions given the sample size to use this play, and again, I really want to get max value from the QJ type hands in his range.
4.) something like I did, about 5x. I think this is a nice happy medium here. It puts in about 1/2 stack, should get called by just about his entire donking range, and gets max value against the 1pr hands.
I did end up going with option 4 and raised to $26.35. I personally think I could have pinched a little extra here, maybe $29.15 or so, but I am still happy with overall play. Make sure to consider your betsizing carefully to max value against the entire range, or as much of the range as possible.
SB calls $21.85