This hand is from a live no limit game, Hero said there’s a mix of regs, action junkies, nits and randoms. In this exact situation, there’s an open, there’s a call, Hero decides to squeeze and everything looks really good so far. I might make this just a little bit bigger, maybe $45 or $50, strictly for value, but overall, not going to complain too much.
Curious how to pull off a Bluff Squeeze Preflop?
Get called by the Solid Winner, and we end up going heads up to the flop and Hero describes the Solid Winner as the kind of person to have a little bit of a back and forth and the Solid Winner will buy Hero drinks occasionally, that sort of, kind of relationship.
Here we go to the flop of jack/seven/five rainbow, Hero decides to lead for 75, totally standard, ends up getting called, three on the turn, and Hero decides to check.
At this point, Hero says that he checks the turn with the intention of check calling and he’s putting the Solid Winner on a range of like medium pocket pairs up to queens, something like ace/jack suited or king/jack suited possibly, and maybe even like a suited jack double gap since Solid Winner might think that Hero is trying to steal pre-flop.
Well, first and foremost, I kind of disagree with that range, but let’s just assign it for a moment. If we do assign a range like that, there’s a lot of jack-X in there, which means there’s a lot of second-best hands that will probably call another bet. If we stick them in for like $1.25 now, we can probably stick them in for a cry call on the river and we’re still going to be annihilating that range on most rivers. Because of that, let’s just bet strictly for value.
Now in the real world, I’m probably not going to assume something like that unless I’ve seen it before because he did call roughly 10% of the effective stack pre-flop and he called it without closing action, so there’s still players behind him that could back raise or just straight up four men or face anyway.
Because of that, I don’t assume that someone who I classify as a Solid Winner is going to have a range that wide. I think their range when they cold call a 3-bet pre-flop squeeze especially, that it’s going to be pretty pinned down to a very, very narrow range and I’m still going to be value betting against that, because I think a lot of it is going to sit squarely on queens. Jacks, yes, could certainly be in there, but those combos, there’s only three of those versus the six of queens that still makes sense, so I would just continue betting for that rationale.
Here, given the thought process and the range that you gave, again, I would just continue betting. The turn is a really, really important street. I think a lot of players overlook it and they take these turn checks in situations where a turn bet would be infinitely better. Again, given the range that you assign the thought process, you really should be betting those turns strictly, strictly for value.
Check out this great video on The Math Behind Raising The Turn
As played, Solid Winner checks behind in the turn, river fills the flush, but again, pretty brick card. Hero decides to check.
Again, if I’m going to check the turn and the turn goes check, check, I’m just going to value bet the river and hope that he has something cry calling, something like tens or maybe jack-X, that’s really again, something that you’re assigning, I’m probably not. I don’t really think he has like ace/king type hands. Partially because I have two kings in my hand, but also because I just don’t think he plays it this way.
I think when he checks the turn behind, he’s looking at like a single pair that he hates life with so you should just value bet all day against it and I’d probably bet something like 175 and just try to get straight value from it.
As played, Solid Winner bets for 100, I would probably just call this, but again, I don’t think I would ever really take this line. I think this line was way too passive and we’re just leaving way too much money on the table. In this exact situation, unfortunately we end up running into a flush, which is absolutely bizarre.
But again, I’m going to then reclassify who this player is. I don’t think he’s a Solid Winner. I don’t think a Solid Winner is going to call 10% of their stack pre-flop with jack/ten suited. I don’t think they’re going to do it not closing action. I just don’t view this person, in this line especially, as something that is done by a good player.
Because of that, I’m just going to view this as someone who just has a weird dynamic with me, wants to mess with me, and that’s okay. It’s just going to change the way that I think about his play in the future. Again, this gives even more validity to betting that turn strictly, strictly for value. If you think that he’s calling you with things like this—and again, I wouldn’t think someone who is a Solid Winner would—but if I’ve ever seen this before, bet turn all day for value. Again, get it in on a river.
Yeah, whatever, he had the opinion of a flush this time, but in the long run, we’re going to absolutely annihilate him and just hit so much value in his face.