Tag Archives: bet sizing

Simple Poker Bluff Math

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The honest truth is that poker bluffs are simple with a small amount of math. But in saying that, I also realize that many players are scared of poker math.  It can look overwhelming at first, but with some basic knowledge it becomes very easy to do.  And with a just little bit of extra practice, you can memorize a few things and correctly estimate the value of certain bluff plays at the table.  

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Why You Should Play Flushes Aggressively

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As part of the Ask SplitSuit a question series, a bunch of people asked hand history questions and this one actually came privately via Facebook. Rhys prefaces the hand by saying:

“Hi James! I’ve been religiously watching your videos and found all of them fantastic for rounding out my game. Until now, I’ve never had a situation where I couldn’t look back and go, ‘Ahh, I messed up here or I could have played better here.’ But this one kind of stumped me.”

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Stop Flat Calling With Pocket Queens

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This hand is from 5NL, 6Max on PokerStars Zoom. There’s a raise UTG. Hero decides to call, next act with pocket QQ. I want to talk about this, because this is a really important part of the hand that I think sometimes goes overlooked.

To start out, I want to talk about a situation where I like calling here. I like calling here if you have some really aggressive squeezers behind you. So, you can call, induce that squeeze, and then go forward from there. That’s a great situation.

In most other dynamics, I don’t love calling here, and there are a couple of reasons why. First and foremost, I don’t want to call and just allow other people to continue for cheap. I don’t want to just let other people continue with things like Ax, small pairs, suited connectors, and just get there, put me into uncomfortable situations and possibly unprofitable situations later down the line, when I could’ve otherwise charged them pre-flop, if they wanted to get involved with me.

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Pocket Jacks In A 3Bet Pot

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Tony says: “I have an interesting hand with jacks versus a fishy villain in a tough spot where he over-bet jammed on the river.”

This hand is from 25NL on PokerStars. There’s a min raise from Jumper, and he is a 32/11 over 29 hands. It folds around to Hero, who decides to 3Bet, which is great. I love the fact that we’re 3Betting. Someone with a 32/11 stat, even over just 29 hands, is likely someone who is going to be on the fishier side of the spectrum. Big gap in the VPIP/PFR definitely denotes that they’re not going to be a strong opponent, and the fact that they’re just min raising from there doesn’t really lead me to believe that they’re going to be a great opponent, either. So because of that, I’m definitely in a value-bet mindset, totally going from there.

That being said, I love the fact that we’re 3Betting, but I don’t love the size. I think we’re going to leave a lot of money on the table. Also, if we just look at it conceptually, if we use this size, we’re giving him a great price to both obviously get involved with whatever cards he has, but also to take position on us. That’s something that I don’t want to do, I just don’t want to give someone a great price and say, “Hey, if you want to have all these advantages in your favor, go for it.” That’s just not something that I want to do.

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