What To Do On The Worst Card In The Deck?

Today’s hand comes from John where he has 44 in a live game. In this $2/$5 game it folds around, hero opens fours, opening a 5x is probably a little bit large here. You can probably get this away for 20 just as much as you can get it away for 25, so I might shave down to 20. Not a huge deal, but definitely keep it in mind.

Seat 2 calls and is described as an older guy and he seemed to fit the older guy stereotype with his play, so he didn’t seem tricky at all. With that said, we end up flopping on middle set, which is always fun. He checks, he decides to bet. First, love the fact that we’re betting. Second, I love the fact that we’re betting nice and large because when seat two does and will continue, it’s definitely going to be pretty inelastic if he has sixes plus, if he has any sort of decent pair or decent draw here he’s not going anywhere. You probably weren’t going to make a ton more even by betting like 30 from like a king, queen, something like that. I love the fact that we’re betting large. Just really punish the time that he does continue.

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I think you’re probably even going to get some continuance from things like a six or if he has ace/jack, probably continue the two over cards in a gut-shot, that wouldn’t surprise me too much. We end up getting called again, not shocking. Turn is an eight, check, and here decides to fire for 200. At this point John says,” It was not a long session, but he seemed very sticky with his big draws and over-pairs. Thus the big turn bet to punish his in-elasticity. The intention of the turn bet was to also commit the both of us to the pot.”

John first and foremost, I really want to applaud you for paying a lot of attention to this guy and starting to develop these kind of reads. Also applaud you for doing something a little bit more creative. Right? An over bet on the turn is not the most typical thing in the world, especially when its not a shove. I really like to see this kind of creative stuff. Now, is this the best place for it? That’s the real point. In this situation obviously the eight does improve a couple things. It improves pocket eights, okay whatever, and it improves six/seven.

Now if seat 2 has 76, being an older guy, it’s probably only going to be six/seven suited. If he had six/seven on clubs, does he check raise the flop, or does he just check call? Really those are my most important things. I think he’s probably going to check raise with six/seven of clubs on the flop, just because it’s so so huge. I think we’re in a situation where he has like three combos of six/seven suited that are not clubs, and three combos of pocket eights. It is what it is.

There’s six combos of nuttish stuff. Now, the other question here of course is what’s he gonna do with his big draws and stuff, and over pairs like nines, tens, jacks, that he probably doesn’t jam with because he’s an older guy. If you think there’s a ton of that in there, and you think he’s gonna continue against it for 200, then I really love the fact that we’re making the larger size. It definitely punishes, it’s definitely on the more creative side of the spectrum. A lot of players don’t make this bet size, but I really like it in this spot based upon the information you gave.

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We end up getting called by seat 2. The river is and Ace of clubs I really can’t think of a worse card, and we end up facing a jam from seat 2. This is really John’s question is his fold good, or not good? There’s a couple major considerations here. First and foremost based upon the player profile, I don’t think we’re going to be seeing very many bluffs from this guy at all. Right? He doesn’t seem tricky, he’s an older guy, he also seems sticky on turns and stuff with big draws and over-pairs and such. That being said, a lot of players may say,” Well maybe he would shove here with like two pair.”

Well, I don’t think he has very many two pair. Simply because if he has like ace/deuce, ace/four, ace/five, ace/eight, anything like that, is he really going to check call a turn with it? I don’t think so. It just doesn’t really seem likely. Yes, I think he’s gonna be more sticky with draws, but not necessarily with crappy pairs. All that being said I don’t think we’re looking at two pair a lot here. I don’t think we’re looking at very many bluffs either, and this is a death card. Right? It fills up 3x, it fills up clubs, it fills up everything. I really think we’re going to be looking at a strong hand here way too often.

Even though we’re getting a fairly good price, we don’t need to be good that bad often. I don’t think we’re good enough of the time to give this exact player action here. John as played, I really like the fact that you found the fold button. It’s definitely not a spot where I love folding. I really hate folding sets in pots where I start the effective stack with a hundred bid winds or less, but by the same token this seems like an exact perfect spot to find the fold button. Just to get us the player profile, and the fact that there probably are far too few bluffs in that range in order for us to make a profitable call.

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