It has been a little while since I did one of these, and this odd hand felt like a good one to review. Here is the hand:
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold’em Cash Game, 7 Players
SB: $97 (194 bb)
Hero (BB): $52.70 (105.4 bb)
MP1: $51.20 (102.4 bb)
MP2: $57.85 (115.7 bb)
MP3: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
CO: $41.30 (82.6 bb)
BTN: $69.35 (138.7 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with A Q
MP1 raises to $2, 2 folds, CO calls $2, BTN calls $2, SB folds, Hero raises to $7.65, MP1 calls $5.65, CO folds, BTN calls $5.65
Flop: ($25.20) 5 A 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $14.35
So let me first give you the needed details. MP1 is a very reggy player. Usually plays 100NL, is well known on the forums, etc, and runs 13/9 over my 6K sample. He opens around 8% of hands from EP…he also has some pretty big leaks in his game (betsizing leaks like woah), and seems to be very face-up at any and all times. CO is an idiot, 23/2 over 70 hands and seems to be a little spewy. BUT is another reg player at 15/10 over 500 hands…again, nothing special. Which brings us to HERO…who like usual, is running a springy 19/17 with an aggro 3b%.
With the early raise, and then 2 callers, I think I can squeeze this out almost always. MP1 opens 8% of hands from EP which will look like 55+/AK give or take. If I fold out 55-TT and AK sometimes, then I am doing very well here. Also, I make CO or BUT play with their hands face-up in a bloated pot (so my CB will work often and fold out their pairs). There is also $6.75 in dead money in the pot, and flatting with AQ OOP in a 4way pot is a recipe for making amplified mistakes. So I squeeze here to $7.65, a pinch smaller than I would normally squeeze to. This size means it only has to work ~53% of the time outright to work, not even including the times I am called and pick it up with a CB. It also applies a lot of pressure, and the size of it allows me to play perfectly against MP1, who if he shoves, he obvi beats me and I lose the least amount I could.
The plan doesn’t quite go as planned as I get 2 callers, though luckily for me, from the 2 people that now have their hands face-up. MP1 really only has JJ/QQ/KK, and sometimes AA (he most likely shoves AK as a 4b…though being he has leaks, he COULD make a huge mistake and flat it here…but I will assume he is good enough to shove it and discount it from his range). And BUT has 22-JJ and is over setmining (btw, greeeeeeeeeeat job putting in ~15bb to setmine preflop!).
The flop is a very interesting Ad5d2d, and I lead out for $14.35. In retrospect I think this bet should have been smaller, about $12.85 or so…but I am a betsizing nit =) My lead here is as a semi-bluff. I want to pick up the pot now (that would be lovely), but don’t mind a flatcall from MP1. If I get any action from BUT HU, I will have to feel it out very carefully (meaning I bet, MP1 folds, BUT calls). My plan is to stack it in against MP1 (if he raises (1 combo of AA, 6 combos of KK with a diamond, say a discounted 3 combos of QQ with a diamond, etc) , and BUT folds) now…to fold if I bet, MP1 folds, and BUT shoves…to feel it if I bet, MP1 folds, BUT calls…and fold if I bet, MP1 calls, BUT shoves/raises. All of these are very logical and come from how these players would react to the other’s action. And notice my betsize carefully, I open myself up for nothing…I do not trap myself to the pot, I do not bet so little I offer a cheap bluff against me…I threaten stacks with minimal investment.
As played MP1 calls, and BUT comes over the top. My line was to bet/fold if that happened, and thus I did. I think I played the hand very well, applied a ton of pressure during the entire hand, and risked very little to create a very mistake rich environment.
MP1 calls $14.35, BTN raises to $61.70 and is all-in, Hero folds, MP1 calls $29.20 and is all-in
Turn: ($126.65) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($126.65) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)