After reading the title you may be a bit confused as to WTF I’m talking about. First off, what is poker stat disparity? A disparity in poker stats is simply a difference between stats…and this difference can be quite helpful once understood.
I’ve spoken in the past about the gaps between stats (simple gaps such as the difference between the VPIP and PFR to gaps such as foldVflopCB and foldVturnCB), and these gaps can be very useful when creating +EV lines. To show an example of this, look at Villian 170’s stats…in particular his In-Position flop and turn CB:
Notice that he is Cbetting the flop in position 68% of the time yet only Cbetting the turn in position 13% of the time. There is obviously a huge disparity between those two numbers…and anytime there is a huge disparity there is usually a simple way to exploit that poker player. This is similar to anything in poker though; anytime someone does something too often or too little it’s easy to exploit them. So in this situation, he’s CBetting too often on the flop, and then being way too straight forward on the turn. And the cool thing is that it gives us info if he checks the turn…as well as gives us information the times he bets the turn. If he rarely Cbets the turn, then when he does double barrel it’s likely with a strong hand.
Now there are some things you want to consider when looking for stat disparities, and of course before creating strategies against your opponent.
First is sample size. You are going to be able to use a VPIP and PFR disparity much faster than you’ll be able to use TurnCB and River CB disparity. The smaller your sample size, the less useful your stats will be and the less you’ll want to make huge strategic adjustments.
Secondly, think about history/dynamic. A player might have a huge disparity between flopCB and turnCB overall, but against YOU it may be much less of a gap.
And third, use disparity to get ideas and create plays, but keep gathering more data and adjust/re-adjust overtime. A player may have a large disparity today, but over time he may improve and close the gap…making your over-adjusted strategy a losing one a month from now.
To break it down simply, the theory is that any huge disparity is easily exploited. As for the application, there are many! For instance, here are two disparities I am actively looking for and a simple way to exploit either:
- Low FoldvFlopCB & High FoldvTurnCB: Against these people, I will double barrel a ton of bluffs because they are playing so tight and straight forward on the turn, yet getting to the turn with a lot of hands.
- Low Foldv3Bet & High FoldvFlopCBin3BetPot: Against these people, I will 3bet a lot of bluffs and CB pretty much every flop, regardless of the texture. They are giving 3-bets action too liberally but playing too weak/tight when they call the 3Bet.
And for the record, a disparity doesn’t necessarily need to be a high/low or low/high disparity. For instance, I often times look for players who have a high steal % AND have a high FoldvResteal so that I can resteal a bunch of junk and show a lot of outright profit.
I do suggest that you think a bit about stat disparities and how to use them in your own game. Think about easy spots to look for (bluff 3bets, value 3bets, flopCBs, and double barrels), and then also consider complicated multi-street bluffs (like Low Foldv3Bet + Low FoldvCBin3BetPot + High FoldvTurnCBin3Bet Pot). Remember to keep sample size in mind, but look for players who do any one thing too often – and then make simple strategic adjustments to exploit them!
3 thoughts on “Poker Stat Disparity (Theory & Application)”
split, in very multiple way live game pots (6 or 7) callers , can it be plus ev to make a pot over bet from the button? I’ve noticed that in very passive games, I will get folds as long as the raise is large enough. What are your thoughts? (1/2 live cash with all similar 300$ stacks)
For sure. If they will fold once you go bigger than Xbb, just raise that every time you want folds =)
Just be careful when you do get called. Which will happen a non zero percent of the time. Do not spew off since the pot is overly bloated at this point.
Calculate their range and how it touches post flop. Usually a 1/2 pot bet will get you enough folds when you miss and the board is favorable.
If you meet resistance I would be on board with giving up unless some magic card comes which you can place pressure with.
Also, use a lot of SDV when you do happen to hit.
FYI, if you happen to go to show down you won’t be able to use this move anymore.
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